Ice loss in the European Alps until 2050 using a fully assimilated, deep-learning-aided 3D ice-flow model

Modelling the short-term (<50 years) evolution of glaciers is difficult because of issues related to model initialisation and data assimilation. However, this timescale is critical, particularly for water resources, natural hazards, and ecology. Using a unique record of satellite remote-sensing data, combined with a novel optimisation and SMB-calculation method within the framework of the deep-learning-based Instructed Glacier Model, we are able to resolve initialisation issues. We thus model the evolution of all glaciers in the European Alps up to 2050 under present-day climate conditions, assuming no future climate change. We find that the resulting committed ice loss exceeds a third of the present-day ice volume by 2050, with multi-kilometre frontal retreats for even the largest glaciers. Our results show the importance of modelling ice dynamics to accurately retrieve the ice-thickness distribution and to predict future mass changes. Thanks to high-performance GPU processing, we also demonstrate our method’s global potential.