Adaptive Reservoir Operation Management Considering the Influence of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Project on Inflow

The seasonal flood limited water level (FLWL) is one of the important ways for the reservoir to efficiently use flood resources under the premise of meeting flood control requirements in the flood season. This paper established the joint distribution of summer and autumn maximum 7-day flood volume based on the Copula theory by considering the impact of inter-basin water transfer projects, and then deduced the most probable combination form for seasonal floods with the help of the Lagrangian multiplier method. Finally, the optimal design of the seasonal FLWL scheme was obtained by building an optimal model with the objective function of maximizing the available water supply, where the joint distribution probability value was regarded as the main flood control constraint. Selecting China’s Danjiangkou Reservoir as a case study, the results show that: (1) The general form of the most likely combination of seasonal floods considering the impact of inter-basin water transfer projects is derived. (2) The optimal reservoir FLWLs in summer and autumn seasons are, respectively, 161.9 and 164.8 m. (3) The relative increment of the annual average diversion volume has increased by 1.8%, and the assurance probability of downstream water has increased by 0.79%, indicating that the optimized FLWLs have significantly improved the water supply. These research results are helpful to improve the flood resource utilization rate of the reservoir in the flood season.