Estimating covid-19 transmission time using hawkes point processes
ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS(2023)
Abstract
The question addressed here is whether, using Hawkes models. the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) transmission times can be estimated accurately with only case-count data. We fit Hawkes models with varying productivities to each of the 50 United States individually, estimating for each state a transmission time density, both nonparametrically and using a normal approximation. We find that, for nearly all states, the estimated transmission times are centered near seven days with a standard deviation of approximately one day. Compared to previous reports, the results here suggest that trans-mission times for SARS-CoV-2 are somewhat shorter, on average, and the distribution is less diffuse, though the results also suggest the possibility of transmission occurring on the first day of exposure.
MoreTranslated text
Key words
Disease epidemics,Hawkes model,point process,self-exciting
AI Read Science
Must-Reading Tree
Example
![](https://originalfileserver.aminer.cn/sys/aminer/pubs/mrt_preview.jpeg)
Generate MRT to find the research sequence of this paper
Chat Paper
Summary is being generated by the instructions you defined