Long‐term cyanobacterial dynamics from lake sediment DNA in relation to experimental eutrophication, acidification and climate change

Abstract Cyanobacterial blooms in aquatic environments have impacted ecosystem health, altered food webs and contributed to substantial regional economic losses. The relative impacts of climate change, eutrophication and other environmental stressors on the formation of cyanobacterial blooms remain unclear as a consequence of the lack of long‐term data. The analysis of lake sediment archives can help address such questions. The abundance of target cyanobacterial genes was quantified using droplet digital PCR from two experimental and two reference lakes at the IISD ‐ Experimental Lakes Area, Northwestern Ontario, Canada where various anthropogenic drivers have been manipulated and phytoplankton biomass and taxonomy (via microscopy) tracked over the past 50 years. Based on sediment DNA (sedDNA) records, Lake 227 has seen more than two full orders of magnitude rise in cyanobacterial abundance in response to experimental nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loading since 1969. Lake 223 also experienced a small increase in cyanobacterial abundance during a period of experimental acidification. The sedDNA archives also identified an increase in abundance of mcyE , a gene involved in microcystin synthesis, in Lake 227 after 1990 when experimental nitrogen loading ceased and only phosphorus loading continued. Sequencing of the cyanobacterial 16S rRNA gene from sedDNA revealed a shift towards Nostocales dominance in response to eutrophication in Lake 227; this was also seen in the more recent sediments of the other lakes but to a much lesser extent. When comparing the sedDNA data with historical phytoplankton records of the past ~50 years, moderate‐to‐strong correlations were found between the two. This research validated the use of sedDNA for the analysis of long‐term trends in lakes and the results revealed additional changes that were not recorded from the surface‐water records. Experimental nutrient loading had the greatest influence on the cyanobacterial community in Lake 227. However, climate change, via declines in heating degree days, was also significant in explaining variation in the cyanobacterial communities in the experimental lakes as well as the reference lakes.