Long-Term Conflict and Environmental Change

Abstract The Karabakh conflict reignited in the winter of 2020 and a new peace accord transferred several key regions from Armenian to Azeri control. At least 90,000 people were displaced and tensions in the region remain high. This chapter uses data from remote sensing to assess the long-term environmental impact of the Karabakh conflict from the 1990s through 2020. We look specifically at changes in land use and land cover. These include analyses of forest disturbance, cropland abandonment and patterns of surface water. We conclude that forest disturbance and cropland abandonment are likely to generate expanded habitat for Anopheles sacharovi— a key malaria vector in the region. Ongoing tensions also suggest the conflict is not yet resolved and the potential for new hostilities is high.