Can the Political Left Save the Planet? Impact of Leftist Mayors on Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

The study investigates the role of local democracies on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. It is argued that the political left in Brazil, who have formed alliances with various workers' groups, are more likely to defend the environment and the indigenous people. This is because protecting the poor requires state intervention, which conflicts with the interests of businesses that seek to profit by using the rainforests for farming, cattle grazing, mining, and other activities. Using data from 760 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon from 2000-2021, the paper examines the impact of left-wing Mayors on measures of environmental conflict and accord, including deforestation – levels and annual changes, reforestation, and local government expenses on environmental management. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity framework, we identify the effects of close elections between left and right-wing Mayoral candidates on selected outcomes. Results suggest that close elections of leftist mayors are associated with a significant drop in deforestation, increased reforestation, and higher environmental expenses, particularly when the leftist mayor is not in a coalition with other parties. The effects hold true regardless of whether the Mayors are from left, center-left or workers' parties. Just as leftist Mayors are accountable to their voters, voters too turnout more in more deforested areas in support of the leftist Mayors. Just as elected leftist Mayors are accountable to their voters, voters too turnout more in more deforested areas in support of the leftist Mayors.