Impact of structural change in electricity and hydrogen end use on low-carbon transition of an energy system: A case study of China

Driven by global targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems are expected to undergo fundamental changes, and the proportion of electricity and hydrogen may greatly increase. Scenarios analysis based on optimal planning is beneficial to exploring how this growth affects the structure of an energy system, whilst at the same time reducing costs, better fulfilling the carbon emission target and ensuring energy security. This study sets two groups of different scenarios based on share of electricity and hydrogen in end use respectively, and uses China Regional Energy Supply System Optimization Model (CRESOM) as an analysis tool. China is chosen as a case study due to the large scale, complex structure, fast growth rate, strict yet changing emissions constraints of its energy system. Results show that with an increase in electrification rate, cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over a certain planning horizon could reduce, at a priced of increased unit reduction cost. By increasing the share of electricity and hydrogen in the end use from 71% to 80% in 2060, the unit carbon reduction cost rises by 17%. Increasing share of hydrogen could move the carbon emissions peak time by approximately five years.