Determining Urban Growth in Response to Land Use Dynamics using Multi-Layer Perceptron and Markov Chain Models in a Metropolitan city: Past and Future

Abstract Monitoring changes in land use and land cover over a specific timeframe, as well as predicting future trends, is of paramount importance due to its increasing influence on local, regional, and global environments. This study focuses on analyzing the dynamics of land use and land cover patterns, rapid urban expansion, and the underlying driving forces in the past three decades in KMC, West Bengal. To establish the relationship between land use/land cover dynamics and built-up expansion from 1990 to 2020, this study utilizes multi-temporal satellite data (Landsat-5 TM, Landsat-8 OLI) and census data. The analysis reveals that the highest transformation occurred in green spaces, followed by fallow lands and water bodies, as they were converted into built-up areas. Kolkata, being the third-ranking megacity in India and the capital of West Bengal, faces immense pressure for land transformation due to its Kolkata Municipal Corporation's floating population of 6 million, surpassing the total residential population of 4.5 million. This rapid urbanization is driven by the need for residential facilities, administrative services, business and commercial services, and employment opportunities. Statistical analysis demonstrates a strong correlation (coefficient of determination = 0.93) between built-up expansion and population growth. The substantial floating and residential population exert significant pressure for fast built-up expansion, resulting in the transformation of land use and land covers, with adverse environmental impacts such as loss of biodiversity, air and noise pollution, soil and water pollution, creation of microclimates, and the urban heat island effect.