Variations in COVID-19 impacts by social vulnerability in Philadelphia, June 2020-December 2022

Abstract Introduction The study objective was to elucidate the relationship between social vulnerability and COVID-19 impacts in Philadelphia over a 2.5-year period, between June 2020 and December 2022. Methods Using publicly available COVID-19 case, test, hospitalization, and mortality data for Philadelphia (June 7, 2020-December 31, 2022) and area-level social vulnerability data, we compared the incidence, test positivity, hospitalization, and mortality rates in high and low vulnerability neighborhoods of Philadelphia, characterized as scoring above or below the national median score on the social vulnerability index. We used linear mixed effects models to test the association between social vulnerability and COVID-19 incidence, test positivity, hospitalization, and mortality rates, adjusting for time and age distribution. Results 90.4% of Philadelphians ( n = 1,430,153) live in neighborhoods classified as socially vulnerable, based on scoring above the national median score on the social vulnerability index. COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization, and mortality rates were significantly elevated in the more vulnerable communities, with p < 0.05, p < 0.005, and p < 0.001, respectively. The relative risks of COVID-19-related incidence, hospitalization, and death, comparing the more vulnerable neighborhoods to the less vulnerable neighborhoods, were 1.11 (95%CI: 1.10-1.12), 2.07 (95%CI: 1.93-2.20), and 2.06 (95%CI: 1.78-2.38), respectively. Thus, between June 7, 2020 and December 31, 2022, 32,573 COVID-19 cases, 9,409 hospitalizations, and 1,967 deaths would have been avoided in Philadelphia’s more vulnerable communities had they experienced the same rates of incidence, hospitalization, and death as the less vulnerable Philadelphia communities. Conclusions These results highlight the disparate morbidity and mortality experienced by people living in more vulnerable neighborhoods in a large US city. Importantly, our findings illustrate the importance of designing public health policies and interventions with an equity-driven approach, with greater resources and more intensive prevention strategies applied in socially vulnerable communities.