Expert elicitation of risk factors for progression to dementia in individuals with mild cognitive impairment

This study assesses experts' beliefs about important predictors of developing dementia in persons with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).Structured expert elicitation, a methodology to quantify expert knowledge, was used to elicit the most important risk factors for developing dementia. We recruited 11 experts (6 neurologists, 3 geriatricians, and 2 psychiatrists). Ten experts fully participated in introductory meetings, two rounds of surveys, and discussion meetings. The data from these ten experts were utilized for this study.The expert elicitation identified age, CSF analysis, fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) findings, hippocampal atrophy, MoCA (or MMSE) score, parkinsonism, apathy, psychosis, informant report of cognitive symptoms, and global atrophy as the ten most important predictors of progressing to dementia in persons with MCI.Several dementia predictors are not routinely collected in existing registries, observational studies, or usual care. This might partially explain the low uptake of existing published dementia risk scores in clinical practice.