Impact Assessment of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Health Services in Katsina State, Nigeria

Introduction: In the wake of the novel COVID-19 pandemic the health service disruption with the resultant widespread health consequences associated with the virus has become abundantly clear to all. Our primary objective was to determine the impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on primary health care performance indicators in Katsina state.Material and Methods: Data was pulled and analyzed for trends and coverage of selected performance indicators from Quarter 1, 2019 to Quarter 2, 2020. Data sources were administrative data from District Health Information Software. An indicator each was analyzed from the following health thematic areas: Child health, Routine Immunization, Family planning, HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment, Labor and Delivery, Malaria and Antenatal Care (ANC). Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were carried out using Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 20. Time series analysis with Auto-Regressive and Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling on indicators was used to study trends of performance over time. Simple Linear Regression (SLR) analysis was used to report coefficients of relationships at intercept and period points.Results: ANC 4th visit decreased abysmally from 65% to 46%, pentavalent vaccine 3 also declined consistently from 83% to 74% during the active lock down period. The study was also able to identify rising numbers of <5 mortality rate (from 2% to 19%) and a corresponding decrease in Pentavalent vaccine 3 coverage over time. These finding were significant (P = 0.01) across periodic quarters of 2019 and 2020.Conclusion: The current study was able to demonstrate, using ARIMA and SLR modeling, the decline in ANC 4th visit and pentavalent vaccine coverage in Katsina state, Nigeria during the active lock down phases.