Stabilization of HIV incidence in women of reproductive age in southern Mozambique.

Introduction The collection of incidence data on HIV infection is necessary to evaluate the status and dynamics of the epidemic and the effectiveness of intervention strategies. However, this is usually difficult in low-income countries. Methods Five yearly point HIV prevalence estimations (in 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2008) were obtained for women between 15 and 45 years of age participating in three studies carried out for other purposes at the Antenatal Clinic (ANC) in Manhic, a, Mozambique. HIV incidence was estimated between prevalence points using a previously validated methodology. Two methods were used, one based on mortality rates for three HIV epidemic scenarios, and the other based on survival information after infection. The pattern over time was captured by fitting a log-regression model. Results The prevalence of HIV infection ranged from 12% in 1999 to 49% in 2008. The HIV incidence increased from approximately 3.5 cases per 100 person-years in 2001 to 14 per 100 person-years in 2004, with stabilization thereafter to levels of around 12 cases per 100 person-years. The incidence estimates were comparable for the two methods used. Conclusion These findings indicate an increase in the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection among women of reproductive age over the 9 years of the analysis, with a plateau in the incidence of infection since 2005. However, the very high figures for both prevalence and incidence highlight the importance of the continuation of the prevention and treatment programmes that already exist, and suggest that implementation of preventive measures is needed in this area.