Estimating the costs of energy transition scenarios using probabilistic forecasting methods

We evaluate the cost of four different scenarios for the global energy system from 2020 to 2070 using an empirically validated technology forecasting method based on an expansive historical dataset. A no-transition scenario that maintains the current energy mix provides a benchmark. Under a rapid transition scenario, solar photovoltaics and wind are quickly deployed using batteries for short-term storage. Hydrogen-based fuels are used for long-term storage and non-electrifiable applications. Energy prices become lower than historical averages after 2030 and considerably lower after 2050. This yields an expected net present saving at any sensible discount rate; at 4% for example, we predict savings of $5.6 trillion. In contrast, a slower transition is more expensive, while a nuclear scenario is substantially more expensive.