Effect of Meteorological Elements on the Dynamics of Bacillary and Amoebic Dysentery Disease: A Mathematical Approach

Bacillary dysentery, commonly known as shigellosis, is a potentially perilous andextremely contagious bacterial infection of the colon caused by—but not limitedto—bacteria shigella, bacillus, E. coli, Yersinia, and the parasite amoeba. This paperformulates and analyses a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics ofdysentery epidemic that incorporate the effects of weather variations. It examinesthe stability of equilibria and compute the basic reproduction number that iscoupled with the time-periodic model, and establishes results on the thresholddynamics. In the non-autonomous case, it investigates the disease extinction anduniform persistence. Results suggest that the dynamics of bacillary dysentery isappreciably affected by climate change, which also plays a significant role inwhittling the long-term dynamics of the epidemic.