Disentangling the natural and anthropogenic contributions to the balance of ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Inner Mongolia region

Ecosystem services (ES) are defined as the benefits of the natural environment that sustain human life. The analyses of the balance of ecosystem services (ES balance) and its driving factors are critical for achieving the region's sustainable development goals. This study explored the ES balance in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Inner Mongolia (JJJM) region, considering the region's rapid urbanization, implementation of ecological restoration projects, and intense agricultural and pastoral activities. It quantified the ES balance on different scales and selected nine natural and anthropogenic driving factors to reveal its spatio-temporal heterogeneity and change characteristics in 2000-2020. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) The ES balance in the JJJM region exhibited a significant spatial differentiation: generally higher in its eastern and northern areas and lower in its western and southern parts; (2) The ES balance in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a general trend of initial increase and subsequent decrease, while Inner Mongolia exhibited a continuous upward trend. High-value areas (>46) and low-value areas (<10) increased significantly. 27.33% of the areas showed a continuous improvement trend, but the overall ES balance was declining at a rate of 0.110-0.166/year; (3) Among natural factors, temperature had the highest explanatory power (0.409) regarding ES balance, while among anthropogenic factors, grazing density had the highest explanatory power (0.311). The interaction between temperature and precipitation is the strongest; (4) During the study period, the explanatory power of anthropogenic factors increased over time, indicating that human activities were exerting a gradually increasing impact on the JJJM region's ES balance. Overall, this study enhanced spatio-temporal understanding of the driving factors of ES balance differentiation, and offered a scientific basis for ecological policy-matring and the development and transition of socio-economic activities, which could prove to be invaluable in promoting the coordinated development of regional ecologies and economies.