Spatial and Temporal Patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in uMgungundlovu, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa

Background. Investigating the spatial distribution of SARS-CoV-2 at a local level and describing the pattern of disease occurrence can be used as the basis for efficient prevention and control measures. This research project aims to utilize geospatial analysis to understand the distribution patterns of SARS-CoV-2 and its relationship with certain co-existing factors. Methods. Spatial characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 were investigated over the first four waves of transmission using ESRI ArcGISPro v2.0, including Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) with Moran’s “I” as the measure of spatial autocorrelation; and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). In implementing temporal analysis, time series analysis using the Python Seaborn library was used, with separate modelling carried out for each wave.  Results. Statistically significant SARS-CoV-2 incidences were noted across age groups with p-values consistently < 0.001. The central region of the district experienced a higher level of clusters indicated by the LISA (Moran’s I: Wave 1 - 0.22, Wave 2 - 0.2, Wave 3 - 0.11, Wave 4 - 0.13) and the KDE (Highest density of cases: wave 1: 25.1-50, wave 2: 101-150, wave 3: 101-150, wave 4: 50.1-100). Temporal analysis showed more fluctuation at the beginning of each wave with less fluctuation in identified cases within the middle to end of each wave. Conclusion. A Geospatial approach of analysing infectious disease transmission is proposed to guide control efforts (e.g., testing/tracing and vaccine rollout) for populations at higher vulnerability. Additionally, the nature and configuration of the social and built environment may be associated with increased transmission. However, locally specific empirical research is required to assess other relevant factors associated with increased transmission. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The author(s) received no specific funding for this work. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Not Applicable The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Health Research Ethics Committee (HREC) Stellenbosch University I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Not Applicable I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Not Applicable I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Not Applicable The data underlying the results presented in the study are available from the Kwa-Zulu Natal Department of Health, uMgungundlovu District.