Fisheries outcomes of marine protected area networks: Levels of protection, connectivity, and time matter

Establishing large networks of fully protected marine protected areas (MPAs) is challenging because of displacement costs for fisheries. The use of partially protected areas is often proposed as an alternative. However, how conservation and fisheries outcomes of MPA networks are mediated through time by the level of protection remains uncertain. Here we use a metapopulation model of a commercially exploited demersal coastal fish to assess conservation and fisheries outcomes of alternative management policies. We compare the temporal performances of nonspatial management, large MPAs, or networks of MPAs in an overfished case study. In addition, we assess how the magnitude of both outcomes is mediated by larval connectivity and level of protection. We distinguish the relative contribution to fisheries outcomes of unprotected areas in between MPAs, and unprotected areas further away, receiving less displaced fishing effort and potential biomass export. We show that spatial management outperforms nonspatial management, that conservation and fisheries outcomes increase with increasing levels of protection, that fisheries outcomes in areas in between MPAs are higher when connected through larval dispersal, and that increases in catch are preceded by a short-term decrease. Our results call for an increase in protection levels to meet both ecological and fisheries management goals.