The Bilateral Effects of Population Aging on Regional Carbon Emissions in China: Promotion or Inhibition Effect?

To achieve the high-quality model of green, low-carbon, and sustainable development in China, it is necessary to clarify the relationship between population aging and carbon emissions in regions. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2011 to 2020, this article employs a bilateral stochastic frontier model to estimate the promotion, inhibition, and net effects of population aging on regional carbon emissions. The results show that regional carbon emissions are decreased by 15.77% due to the inhibition effect, while they are increased by 10.63% due to the promotion effect. As a result, the net effect is that regional carbon emissions are decreased by 5.14% overall due to the composite action of the above effects. In addition, population aging in eastern, western, and central regions significantly reduces regional carbon emissions. And the inhibition effect of population aging on carbon emissions increases continuously and gradually holds the dominant position during the study period. Moreover, the inhibition effect in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions, which can be strengthened by improving the level of population aging and human capital, as well as urbanization. The conclusions are conducive to providing new perspectives and empirical evidence for understanding the connection between population aging and carbon emissions, as well as policy recommendations for tackling population aging, carbon emission reduction, carbon peaking, and carbon-neutral strategic goals.