Is there a role for conicity index in 10-year risk cardiovascular disease prediction?

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally and one of the most frequent causes of disability. Therefore, the complete and correct evaluation of cardiovascular risk factors is essential to timely prevent CVD. Once central obesity is related with the amount of visceral adipose tissue - an independent predictor of CVD risk - its assessment may play an important role in 10-year CVD prediction. The conicity index (C-Index) assesses central adiposity but there is limited data regarding its role in 10-year CVD risk prediction. Purpose To evaluate the role of C-Index in predicting 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD according to SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP models in a moderate-risk country population. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study in a Portuguese population sample. Individuals aged 40-90 years without known established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes mellitus, Chronic Kidney Disease or Familial Hypercholesterolemia were included in the study through a local cardiovascular (CV) screening event in Portugal, during May 2022. The C-Index was calculated for each individual according to the Valdez’s formula. For CVD risk assessment, we used the cut-offs values proposed by Pitanga et al. 1.18 for women and 1.25 for men. The population was divided into two groups according to the C-Index (risk high versus low). The 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD was calculated using SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP models. Results A total of 431 individuals were enrolled in this study. Median age was 71 years (Q1-Q3: 65-75) and 66.8% of were women. A total of 48.1% had hypertension, 38.3% dyslipidemia, 25.5% obesity and 6.6% were active smokers. Overall, 387 (90.2%) individuals were found to have elevated C-Index (SCORE2/2-OP mean± DP: 14.99± 7.56 versus 09.81± 3.37), of which 259 were female. In the univariate analysis, there was a correlation between C-Index and estimation of the Risk Cardiovascular Disease according to SCORE2/2-OP but was not statistically significant (Exp (beta) 95 % (CI):2.52 (-2.06-7.10, p=0.28)). However, in the multivariable linear regression analyzes the variable waist circumference (Exp (beta) 95 % (CI)18.47 (4.69 – 32.24, p<0.001)) was independent predictive factor related to the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease according to SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. Conclusions In the present study most of the patients were categorized into high-risk category. Conicity index was not significantly correlated with estimation of the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease according to SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP models, but the variable waist circumference (Exp (beta) 95 % (CI)18.47 (4.69 – 32.24, p<0.001)) was an independent predictive factor related. More studies are needed to assess the role of C-Index in CVD risk prediction.