Structural connectivity from DTI to predict mild cognitive impairment in de novo Parkinson's disease

Background: Early detection of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients at high risk for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) can help with timely intervention. White matter structural connectivity is considered an early and sensitive indicator of neurodegenerative disease. Objectives: To investigate whether baseline white matter structural connectivity features from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) of de novo PD patients can help predict PD-MCI conversion at an individual level using machine learning methods.Methods: We included 90 de novo PD patients who underwent DTI and 3D T1-weighted imaging. Elastic net based feature consensus ranking (ENFCR) was used with 1000 random training sets to select clinical and structural connectivity features. Linear discrimination analysis (LDA), support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and naive Bayes (NB) classifiers were trained based on features selected more than 500 times. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy (ACC), sensitivity (SEN) and specificity (SPE) were used to evaluate model performance.Results: A total of 57 PD patients were classified as PD-MCI nonconverters, and 33 PD patients were classified as PD-MCI converters. The models trained with clinical data showed moderate performance (AUC range: 0.62-0.68; ACC range: 0.63-0.77; SEN range: 0.45-0.66; SPE range: 0.64-0.84). Models trained with structural connectivity (AUC range, 0.81-0.84; ACC range, 0.75-0.86; SEN range, 0.77-0.91; SPE range, 0.71-0.88) performed similar to models that were trained with both clinical and structural connectivity data (AUC range, 0.81-0.85; ACC range, 0.74-0.85; SEN range, 0.79-0.91; SPE range, 0.70-0.89).Conclusions: Baseline white matter structural connectivity from DTI is helpful in predicting future MCI conversion in de novo PD patients.