Modeling the optimal seasonal monoclonal antibody administration strategy for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention based on age-season specific hospitalization rate of RSV in Suzhou, China, 2016-2022

Background: The approval of nirsevimab brings light to reducing the heavy disease burden caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Considering the seasonality of RSV, the timing of administrating monoclonal antibody (mAb) is critical to maximize health utility. This study aimed to model and seek the optimal seasonal mAb administration strategy for preventing RSV-associated hospitalization. Methods: Age-season specific hospitalization rates for RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection (RSV-ALRI) were estimated from a hospital-based birth cohort. Using these rates, we simulated and evaluated the effect of diverse mAb administration strategies on preventing RSV-ALRI hospitalization. Optimal strategies were selected based on their effectiveness and relative cost-effectiveness. Results: Compared with the year-round strategy of administration mAb at birth for all children, 291 out of the 854 candidate strategies, featuring diverse administration timing and age thresholds, demonstrated a greater number of averted RSV-ALRI hospitalizations and a lower number needed to treat (NNT). The NNT represents the number of mAb doses needed to prevent one case of RSV-ALRI hospitalization. Among the 291 strategies, administration mAb to children born in July-January or August-January at birth and administrating to the remaining <12 months old children in September, exhibited the highest increase in averted RSV-ALRI hospitalizations than the year-round strategy, with a magnitude of 23 %, while also achieve an 18 % reduction in NNT. Conclusion: Administrating monoclonal antibodies to children born in July to January at birth, and administrating to the remaining <1-year-old children in September or October would be the optimal seasonal mAb administration strategy for children in Suzhou, China.