Period effects in the risk of labour market marginalization among refugees in Sweden: cohort study

Abstract Background Changes in Swedish national insurance policies over time and/or migration-related health inequalities may influence the risk for labour market marginalization (LMM) in refugees as compared to the Swedishborn host population. This study aimed to investigate potential period effects in the association between refugee status and the risk of LMM and explore any differences by country of birth, age and duration of residence. Methods Using national registers, three cohorts including all Swedish residents during 1999, 2004 and 2009 were followed for 4 years (cohort 2000, 2005 and 2010). Cox regression models were used to examine associations between refugee status and LMM defined as long-term unemployment (>180 days annually) and disability pension. The analyses were adjusted for socio-demographic factors, morbidities and labour market-related factors. Stratified analyses were run for age, country of birth and duration of residence. Results Across the cohorts, hazard ratios (HRs) were higher for long-term unemployment [2000: HR = 1.98; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.96-2.01; 2005: HR = 2.30; 95% CI: 2.27-2.33; 2010: HR = 2.78; 95% CI: 2.75-2.81] for refugees compared to Swedish-born but not for disability pension. HRs for long-term unemployment were highest among refugees aged 25-34 and 35-44 years, from Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq and refugees with a shorter duration of residence. Conclusions The risk of long-term unemployment appears to have increased for refugees over time. Particularly some refugee subgroups experienced more difficulties. These findings highlight ongoing disparities for refugees and implicate on a broader scale that changes in policies such as stricter regulations in the insurance or healthcare system might adversely affect them. Key messages • A period effect for long-term unemployment among refugees as compared to Swedish-born could be observed, and increases in the risk estimates were particularly pronounced for specific subgroups. • Refugees seem to face increasing challenges and difficulties over time to access the labour market and changes in policies might adversely affect this situation.