The expression of autophagy markers in IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease and the establishment of prediction model

Background The aim of this study was to find early predictors of Intravenous Immunoglobulin (IVIG)-Resistant Kawasaki Disease. Methods Patients diagnosed with Kawasaki disease were enrolled in this study. Univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze the clinical characteristics and laboratory findings of patients in both groups before IVIG treatment. Independent predictors of Intravenous Immunoglobulin-Resistant Kawasaki Disease were analyzed, and a prediction model for children with Intravenous Immunoglobulin-Resistant Kawasaki Disease was constructed. Results A total of 108 children (67 males and 41 females) with IVIG-sensitive Kawasaki disease and 31 children (20 males and 11 females) with IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease participated in this study. Compared with the IVIG-sensitive group, the duration of hospitalization, ALT, AST, GLB, r-GT, IgG, PCT, and ESR was elevated in the IVIG-resistant KD group, and ATG16L1, LC3II, BECN1, RBC, HGB, ALB, A/G, and CK were significantly lower ( P < 0.05). mRNA expression of ESR, BECN1, and LC3II were independent risk factors for IVIG-resistant Kawasaki disease. A logistic regression model and scoring system were established, and the cut-off values of independent risk factors were derived from ROC curves: ESR ≥ 79.5 mm/h, BECN1 ≤ 0.645, LC3II ≤ 0.481. A new scoring system was established according to the respective regression coefficients as follows: ESR ≥ 79.5 mm/h (1 point), BECN1 ≤ 0.645 (1 point). LC3II ≤ 0.481 (2 points), 0–1 as low risk for IVIG non-response, and ≥ 2 as high risk. Applied to this group of study subjects, the sensitivity was 87.10%, specificity 83.33%, Youden index 0.70, AUC 0.9. Conclusions Autophagy markers ATG16L1, BECN1, and LC3II are down-regulated in the expression of IVIG -resistant KD. ESR, BECN1, and LC3II mRNAs are independent risk factors for IVIG-resistant KD and may be involved in the development of IVIG-resistant KD. This study established a new model that can be used to predict IVIG-resistant KD, and future validation in a larger population is needed.