Changes in the socio-economic characteristics of households can decouple carbon emissions and consumption growth in China

The increasing consumption in developing countries poses a significant challenge to global climate change mitigation efforts. Understanding household characteristics is essential in exploring potential strategies to decouple carbon emissions from the increasing consumption. In this study, we utilized the multi-region inputoutput (MRIO) method to calculate household carbon emissions in China for the years 2012, 2016, and 2018. Using micro-level household survey data, we identified variations in carbon emissions among households with different economic levels and socioeconomic characteristics. Our analysis revealed that changes in household consumption structure and carbon intensity among households with improved economic levels, could result in a reduction of carbon emissions by 14 % to 19 %. Furthermore, households characterized by higher education levels, larger family sizes, and smaller housing units were found to generate lower carbon emissions per capita and per unit of consumption spending. By simulating household carbon emissions up to 2030, we identified three potential pathways to achieve decoupling: household economic upgrading, transitioning to low-carbon household characteristics, and reducing material consumption. Our findings indicate that even with a projected 75 % increase in per capita consumption volume by 2030, per capita household carbon emissions could still be lower than the levels observed in 2016. These results underscore the potential of consumption-focused policy measures in facilitating the decoupling of household consumption from carbon emissions.