Sustainable energy transition of Greenland and its prospects as a potential Arctic e-fuel and e-chemical export hub for Europe and East Asia

Climate change-driven temperature rise in the Arctic has been shown to increase faster than on global average, heavily affecting Greenland's environment. Greenland's energy system is very vulnerable to oil prices, as it relies on imported oil. Rich wind resources complementary with solar resources may enable a transition to a sustainable and self-sufficient energy system. Greenland's transition from a fossil fuels-based system to a 100% renewable energy system between 2019 and 2050 and its position as a potential e-fuels and e-chemicals production hub for Europe, Japan, and South Korea, has been investigated in this study using the EnergyPLAN model. The results indicate a 25% reduction in annualised costs for a fully renewable energy system compared to the reference system. Importing regions can benefit from some of the lowest-cost energy carriers in the world in 2030, and these energy carriers will continue to have a low-cost level in 2050. This study estimates that the production and export of e-fuels and e-chemicals would require up to 300,000 workers for construction and operations. Renewable energy enables a full defossilisation of Greenland's energy system, enhances energy security, and provides opportunities for additional export revenues of up to 61 beuro annually.