Understanding surgical attrition for "resectable" pancreatic cancer

Objectives: We used a novel combined analysis to evaluate various factors associated with failure to undergo surgery in non-metastatic pancreatic cancer. Methods: We identified rates of surgery and reasons for surgical attrition from clinical trials, which studied neoadjuvant therapy in resectable pancreatic cancer. Next, we queried the National Cancer Database (NCDB) for Stage I-III, T1-3 pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients. We investigated the rates and factors associated with the receipt of surgery. Finally, we evaluated variable importance predicting the receipt of surgery. Results: In clinical trials, 25-30 % of patients did not undergo surgery, mostly due to disease progression. In the NCDB, the overall surgical rate was only 49 %, but increased to 67 % in a curated cohort meant to mirror clinical trial patients. Patients treated at low-volume institutions (OR = 0.64, 95 % CI: 0.61-0.67) and who were uninsured (OR = 0.56, 95 % CI: 0.52-0.62) and Medicaid-insured (OR = 0.67, 95 % CI: 0.64-0.71) were less likely to receive potentially curative surgery. Conclusion: We have identified a realistic target surgery rate of 70%-75 % in potentially-resectable pancreatic cancer. While attrition to pancreatic cancer surgery is mostly due to tumor biology, our study identified the most important non-medical barriers, such as facility volume and insurance, affecting pancreatic cancer surgery.