A Three-Stage Dynamic Risk Model for Metro Shield Tunnel Construction

The complex construction process of the metro shield method often leads to safety accidents. The various construction stages of shield tunnel construction comprise different construction activities and are accompanied by different safety risk factors. However, traditional risk assessment often evaluates the risk factors as a whole before shield tunnel construction and does not evaluate the risk factors dynamically by construction stages and by construction activities. To fill this gap, this paper aims to construct a dynamic Bayesian-based safety risk assessment model for shield tunnel construction from the perspective of changing construction stages and activities. First, safety risk factors were identified using the work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure (WBS-RBS) method. Then, a three-stage dynamic assessment model of safety risks was constructed to depict the shield launch, shield tunnel, and shield reach. The dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) was improved to address the model with triangular fuzzy numbers and the leaky noisy-or-gate extension model. Finally, a case study was conducted. The model proposed in this paper is able to reveal the dynamic evolution of safety risks triggered by different construction activities. It offers a new simulated model for the prevention of safety accidents in the construction of metro shields.