Health care policy uncertainty and state-level employment

This study investigates the effects of health care policy uncertainty (HCPU) on aggregate- and state-level employment in the USA. Using quarterly data during 1985Q1–2021Q4, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that HCPU has adverse effects on both aggregate- and state-level employment. The effects at the state level are heterogeneous in terms of both the magnitude and the impact persistence, lasting up to 5 quarters. The heterogeneity can be explained by state-specific structural factors, most notably the right-to-work legislation. The study suggests that uncertainty in health care policies has an economic cost that may be partially preventable.