Pre-registration for Predictive Modeling
CoRR(2023)
摘要
Amid rising concerns of reproducibility and generalizability in predictive
modeling, we explore the possibility and potential benefits of introducing
pre-registration to the field. Despite notable advancements in predictive
modeling, spanning core machine learning tasks to various scientific
applications, challenges such as overlooked contextual factors, data-dependent
decision-making, and unintentional re-use of test data have raised questions
about the integrity of results. To address these issues, we propose adapting
pre-registration practices from explanatory modeling to predictive modeling. We
discuss current best practices in predictive modeling and their limitations,
introduce a lightweight pre-registration template, and present a qualitative
study with machine learning researchers to gain insight into the effectiveness
of pre-registration in preventing biased estimates and promoting more reliable
research outcomes. We conclude by exploring the scope of problems that
pre-registration can address in predictive modeling and acknowledging its
limitations within this context.
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