Interprovincial Lead-Lag Analysis on Secondary and Tertiary Industrial Electricity Consumption

As electricity consumption is direct feedback of industrial production and operation state, there should be links between lead-lag relation in electricity consumption volumes and inter-regional/inter-industrial driving/transferring effects. In this paper, lead-lag relation between provincial secondary industry and tertiary industry electricity consumption volume is studied base on transfer entropy theory which measures causality between time series. It is found that secondary industry and tertiary industry of Shanghai show noticeable driving effect on those of other provinces, especially those along Yangtze River or east coast of China. Meanwhile, significant causality from secondary industry to tertiary industry exists both intra-provincially and interprovincially in a large part of China. By clustering analysis on electricity consumption curves, the lead-lag relation is concretely presented, as the periodic peaks in electricity consumption of secondary emerge stably one month ahead of that of tertiary industry. By correlation analysis with gross domestic product data, it is inferred that the periodic fluctuations in electricity consumption by secondary industry mainly results from economy cycle while those in tertiary industry are more possibly caused by cooling/heating demand in summer/winter.