Sentinel-2 and numerical models to generate climate change scenarios for maize crop in mexico

Agriculture, as a climate-dependent activity is highly susceptible to climate change. General Circulation Models (GCMs), representing physical processes in the atmosphere and land surface, are the most advanced tools currently available for simulating the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Maize requires favorable temperature and precipitation conditions in its different phenological stages. This crop should be recommended in areas where it expresses its maximum yield potential. The objective of this work was to generate current and future CC scenarios with representative concentration routes ( RCP) of GHGs to obtain the potential yield areas of maize. The climatic scenarios obtained show climatic variation, highlighting the increase in temperature and reduction in precipitation in various regions of the study area; however, the conditions for maize crop will be more favorable in some regions, since the area with high productive potential will increase over time. This is shown by the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 models used, with a significant increase in the area of high potential from 2021 to 2080; with the medium potential, we observed a reduction of cultivated area. Low potential surfaces only show an increase with the RCP 8.5 model.