Approximating conflict risk from above - using earth observation and geodata for the assessment of political stability

The prediction of conflicts is performed, if at all, on large spatial and temporal scales. They rely on national and often incomplete databases, especially regarding sub-Saharan Africa. However, since conflicts become more and more a matter of intrastate violence, conflict related information on regional level can improve the identification of vulnerable regions in case of a conflict or highlight areas where emerging unrests are likely. We present a remote sensing (RS) based approach to approximate conflict risk for the Lake Chad area. For years, the region is prone to terror attacks by Boko Haram, who takes advantage of the dysfunctional policies in all neighboring countries. We identify different categories that may indicate political weakness, lack of supply or regional imbalances. For each category, we explore and test RS and geodata based methods that contribute to a detailed picture of the implementation of policies.