A biofuel risk management model for biomass-based heat sources considering supply-demand-side uncertainties

Biofuel-based heat sources are gradually penetrated into heating systems in Northern China in the background of carbon neutrality. It is essential to conduct biofuel risk management study, not only for enhancing the ability of continuous heat supply for heating systems, but also improving the ability of effective cost control. A biofuel risk management model is thus proposed innovatively for biomass-based heat sources considering supply-demand-side uncertainties. The developed model integrates Chance-constrained programming, Two-stage stochastic programming and the traditional linear programming into a general framework. After that, the developed model is applied in to a real heat-source case of biofuel risk management under uncertainties and the corresponding solutions on biofuel risk management are generated. The beneficial results of biofuel allocation pattern can be obtained for decision-makers to provide the fuel management support under different risk levels. Besides, a trade-off analysis between the constraint-violation risk and the system cost can also be provided to conduct in-depth analysis.