Modeling Management-Relevant Urban Forest Stand Characteristics to Optimize Carbon Storage and Sequestration

Urban forests are an essential part of adaptation and mitigation solutions for climate change. To understand the relationship between carbon storage, sequestration, and stand density in the most heavily-managed aspect of the urban forest-street trees-we modified the parameters and algorithms of a rural forest dynamics model, the perfect plasticity approximation (PPA), to reflect urban street tree conditions. The main changes in the new street tree PPA are the maintenance of a prescribed stand density via management of recruitment, the possibility of crown-roof overlap, and increased mortality rates. Using the street tree PPA, we explored overall productivity, crown allometry relative to stem diameter, and mortality rate to test each mechanism's impact on urban street tree carbon storage and sequestration across a gradient of prescribed stand density, with the goal of finding conditions in which street tree carbon storage and sequestration are optimized. We compared the qualitative trends in storage from the street tree PPA to those found in the U.S. Forest Service's Urban Forest Inventory Analysis data. We found that carbon storage and sequestration increase with prescribed density up to a point where carbon storage and sequestration saturate. Optimized carbon storage and sequestration result from a stand with high productivity, maximized crown allometry relative to stem diameter, and a low mortality rate. These insights can be used to inform urban street tree maintenance strategies that effectively increase carbon storage and sequestration within a given city, such as focusing afforestation campaigns on adequate areas with the lowest street tree densities.