Future trajectories of the Solar System: dynamical simulations of stellar encounters within 100 au
MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY(2024)
摘要
Given the inexorable increase in the Sun's luminosity, Earth will exit the habitable zone in similar to 1 Gyr. There is a negligible chance that Earth's orbit will change during that time through internal Solar System dynamics. However, there is a similar to 1 per cent chance per Gyr that a star will pass within 100 au of the Sun. Here, we use N-body simulations to evaluate the possible evolutionary pathways of the planets under the perturbation from a close stellar passage. We find a similar to 92 per cent chance that all eight planets will survive on orbits similar to their current ones if a star passes within 100 au of the Sun. Yet a passing star may disrupt the Solar System, by directly perturbing the planets' orbits or by triggering a dynamical instability. Mercury is the most fragile, with a destruction rate (usually via collision with the Sun) higher than that of the four giant planets combined. The most probable destructive pathways for Earth are to undergo a giant impact (with the Moon or Venus) or to collide with the Sun. Each planet may find itself on a very different orbit than its present-day one, in some cases with high eccentricities or inclinations. There is a small chance that Earth could end up on a more distant (colder) orbit, through re-shuffling of the system's orbital architecture, ejection into interstellar space (or into the Oort cloud), or capture by the passing star. We quantify plausible outcomes for the post-flyby Solar System.
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关键词
astrobiology,methods: numerical,Moon,Oort cloud,planets and satellites: dynamical evolution and stability
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