Contrasting Range Changes of Bergenia (saxifragaceae) Species under Future Climate Change in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains Region

The Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains (HDM) are recognized as two global biodiversity hotspots, harboring the world’s richest alpine flora. However, to what extent the distribution of alpine plants here is affected by climate change remains largely unknown. Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) are perennial medicinal herbs mainly distributed in the Himalaya-HDM region. In this study, we used bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of three Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) species. Our results revealed that the geographical distribution of the studied Bergenia species is primarily influenced by precipitation and elevation. By 2090, the three Bergenia species are expected to show contrasting range changes. The western Himalayan alpine species Bergenia stracheyi is expected to expand its range with 21.93 and 17.36% under the optimistic (SSP1-2.6) and moderate (SSP2-4.5) climate change scenario, respectively, while its distribution will shrink by 5.26% under the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). The Himalayan mid-elevation species B. ciliata is expected to expand its range from 142.42 to 157.14%. In contrast, the distribution range of the east Himalaya-HDM alpine species B. purpurascens is expected to shrink with 34.88 to 47.24%, with most of the habitats in the southeast chains of the HDM at lower elevation summits being lost. In addition, all three Bergenia species are projected to shift their ranges to higher elevations in response to temperature increases. Overall, we conclude that alpine plants may be more vulnerable to climate change than their congeners at lower elevations, supporting the “nowhere to go” hypothesis.