Spatial differentiation of carbon emissions reduction potential for construction and demolition waste recycling

Identifying the regional differences and drivers for carbon reduction of construction and demolition waste (C&DW) recycling is essential to combat climate change. This study aims to calculate the carbon reduction potential for C&DW recycling from 2006 to 2021 in China and investigates the spatial differences and driving factors of carbon reduction potential for C&DW waste by combining the Theil index, Gini coefficient, and geographic detector methods. The carbon reduction potential for C&DW recycling in China was “high in the east and low in the west” overall level, with an average annual growth rate of 6.27%. The overall differences in carbon reduction potential for C&DW recycling are decreasing, mainly due to intraregional differences and inter-provincial differences in Northeast China. The population size, urbanization rate, and technological effect are the key factors influencing carbon reduction potential for C&DW recycling. There are two types of interactions between influencing factor pairs: nonlinear enhancement and two-factor enhancement. This study’s results can guide policymakers to devise relevant, regionally specific policies.