Temporal trends and projection of blindness and vision loss prevalence in older adults in BRICS countries

Background: Blindness and vision loss (BVL) is a major global health issue affecting older adults, but its burden in transition countries has received limited attention. Therefore, we aimed to assess the trends in the burden of BVL among older adults between 1990 and 2019 across Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), and predict the burden by 2040.Methods: Data on BVL and its related causes were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We investigated the temporal trends by calculating the average annual percentage change using joinpoint regression analysis. Subsequently, we performed Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling to estimate the burden of BVL and its related causes by 2040.Results: Most BRICS countries experienced a significant decline (p < 0.05) in age-standardized prevalence rates, and the decreasing trends tend to continue. However, by 2040, the number of BVL cases is expected to increase by approximately 50% across BRICS, with an estimated approximately 192, 170, 25, 17, and 7 million cases in China, India, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa, respectively. The related ranks of BVL causes are also estimated to change in the future, particularly in India.Conclusions: The different burdens and trends of BVL across BRICS reflected the different stages of population health transition. Effective eye disease prevention requires appropriate public health interventions. Developing effective health policies and services for older adults is urgently needed in BRICS countries.