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基于情景反演的船舶追越碰撞风险推理方法

ZHU Qinghua,HU Shenping, WU Jianjun,WANG Fagen, CHEN Yan

Navigation of China(2023)

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Abstract
为揭示船舶在追越过程中碰撞危险演化特征,提出一种基于情景反演的碰撞风险推理方法.基于追越事故案例中记录的船舶碰撞过程的动态信息,反演船舶追越过程中碰撞危险信息;引入负指数函数,结合船舶属性,通过最近会遇距离(Distance of Closest Point of Approach,dCPA)与两船到达最近会遇距离的时间(Time to Closest Point of Approach,tCPA)无因次化,确立船舶会遇的碰撞危险度(Collision Risk Index,ICR),运用灰云推理模型,提出时间维度下追越两船的碰撞风险推理(Potential Collision Risk,PCR);结合多起案例反演数据,得出船舶追越过程中PCR特征.结果表明:船舶追越依次经过碰撞危险、紧迫局面和紧迫危险等3个阶段,在时间节点上有一定稳定性特征,对应的PCR均值分别为0.349 1、0.557 5和0.777 1;船舶左舷追越的PCR值略大于右舷追越;让路船的PCR值感知也略大于直航船.基于情景反演的碰撞风险推理方法能反映会遇过程中两船实时的碰撞风险,为驾驶员实施精细化避碰行动提供有效理论支撑.
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Key words
waterway transport,collision accident,ship overtaking,scenario inversion,grey cloud model,potential collision risk
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