Detection of Space-Time Clusters and Ambient Temperature Effects on Non-Toxigenic Vibrio Cholerae in Russia from 2005 To 2021

Introduction: The identification of climate temperature-sensitive pathogens and infectious diseases is essential in addressing health risks resulting from global warming. Such research is especially crucial in regions where climate change may have a more significant impact like Russia. Recent studies have reasoned that the abundance of V. cholerae is environmentally driven. The aim of the study is to investigate the spatial-temporal trends and thermo-climatic sensitivity of non-toxigenic V. cholerae abundance in Russia. Methods: This study employed spatial epidemiology tools to identify persistent clusters of the V. cholerae ctx- isolation and areas for exploring temperature-depended patterns of the vibrio distribution. Correlation analysis was used to identify regions with temperature-driven Vibrio abundance in water samples. Results: The spatial analysis detected 16 persistent (7-8 year) clusters of V. cholerae ctx- across the study period 2005-2021. The persistent clusters should become targeted areas to improve sanitation conditions. A distinct significant thermo-climatic effect on the abundance of V. cholerae ctx- in water basins was found in three Russian regions with temperate marine (the Kaliningrad region) and sharp continental climatic conditions (the Irkutsk region and the Republic of Sakha). Conclusion: The study offers valuable outcomes to support simplified empirical evaluations of the potential hazards of vibrio abundance that might be useful locally for public health authorities and globally as a part of Russia's warning system of climate change effects.