Continental–Oceanic Dynamics of Russia at the Beginning of the 21st Century

A quantitative assessment of the dynamics of the degree of continentality of Russia at the beginning of the 21st century has been made on four aspects: territorial, population distribution, production and economic, and activity. A noticeable decrease of this degree in terms of basic territorial and settlement aspects is revealed, which indicates a change in the trend of settlement processes from “continentalization” in the last century to “marinization” in the current one. A direct contribution to the decrease in the degree of continentality of the country was made mainly by interregional shifts of the population: its inflow to coastal zones and outflow from ultracontinental zones, as well as an increase in the area of coastal territories due to the annexation of the Crimea and accounting for the number of year-round ports. On the other hand, a pronounced relationship between the tendencies of population displacement to the sea and the rise in maritime economic activity has not been established. An evaluation of the production and economic aspect showed that indicators of traditional material production, on the contrary, are characterized by an increase in the degree of continentality. The discrepancy between the dynamics of the settlement and production and economic aspects is explained by the multidirectionality in the deep regions of key processes, such as industrial development and settlement: the growth of the former goes with a reduction in the latter. An analysis of the activity aspect characterizing the scale of the maritime economy shows extremely sharp disproportions between the growth in the cargo turnover of the country’s seaports and a decline in the volume of its maritime transport, which is manifested in the very weak presence of the Russian merchant fleet in the World Ocean. It has been suggested that a radical aggravation of the geopolitical situation can stop the processes of marinization of settlements and turn the trend back to the continentalization of the country.