Last interglacial global mean sea level from high-precision U-series ages of Bahamian fossil coral reefs

Accurate characterization of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e; -129-116 ka) sea level is important for understanding ice sheet sensitivity to climate change, with implications for predicting future sea-level rise. Here we present a record of MIS 5e sea level based on high-precision U-series ages of 23 corals with precise elevation measurements from reefs around Crooked Island, Long Cay, Long Island, and Eleuthera, The Bahamas. Rigorous screening criteria identified the most pristine samples, and nearly all samples show a narrow delta 234Uinitial range between 143.8 and 151.3 parts per thousand. We infer global mean sea level (GMSL) from these local observations by correcting them for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and long-term subsidence. For GIA, we consider a range of ice histories and Earth viscosity structures. We identify, via Bayesian inference, the range of isostatic and GMSL histories that are consistent with MIS 5e observations across The Bahamas. When applying an open-system correction to our ages, we find that MIS 5e GMSL likely peaked higher than 1 m, but very unlikely exceeded 2.7 m. Our posterior GMSL is lower than previous estimates, but consistent with recent results of modeling and observations. Additionally, sea level observations at other locations (Seychelles, Western Australia, Yucatan) are only slightly above/within the 95% range of predicted local sea level, i.e., GIA plus GMSL, for our open-system/closed-system results. Our relatively constant MIS 5e GMSL indicates that Greenland and Antarctica melted beyond their present extents and, given the insolation forcing, that their contributions to GMSL were likely out-of-phase. These results indicate that the ice sheets may be very sensitive to regional temperature, which has important implications for their combined impact on global sea levels at a time when greenhouse gases increases are causing simultaneous warming at both poles.