Increasing Fire Weather Potential Over Northeast China Linked to Declining Bering Sea Ice

Northeast China (NEC) is one of the most severely impacted regions by fire and biomass burning in the country. Notably, fires in this area have exhibited an increasing trend over the past decade, contrasting with the extensive pollution reduction observed in other parts of China. In this study, we combine observational data analysis and climate model simulations to demonstrate that the escalation of spring fire activities in NEC is likely induced by a decline in Bering Sea ice concentration during preceding months. This Arctic-driven teleconnection contributes to increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in NEC through reduced vertical wind shear, anomalously northerly wind transport, and the formation of a high-pressure center with descending airflow. These changes are conducive to fire ignition and expansion. Furthermore, this linkage may be amplified in future warmer scenarios. This mechanism holds significant implications for predicting decadal fire activity and furthering our understanding of global environmental projections. In Northeast China (NEC), a region severely impacted by fire and biomass burning, there has been an increasing trend in fires over the past decade. This contrasts with pollution reduction seen in other parts of the country. It is therefore necessary to investigate the potential causes of this trend. Here, we show this increase in spring fires is likely due to a decrease in ice concentration in the Bering Sea during earlier months. The Arctic-driven teleconnection will increase the temperature and decrease the precipitation in NEC through reduced vertical wind shear, anomalously north wind transport, and the local high-pressure center with descending airflow. These changes create a hotter and drier condition in NEC that is conducive to fire activities. Furthermore, this connection could be more pronounced in future warmer scenarios, emphasizing the essential need for sustainable development routes with lower greenhouse gas emissions. This finding has important implications for forecasting fire activity across NEC and advancing the global environmental projection. The escalation of fire in Northeast China during the past decade is strongly linked with the decline of Bering Sea ice concentrationWeakened vertical wind shear, the high-pressure center and northerly winds induced by warmer Bering Sea might explain the teleconnectionThis linkage could potentially be intensified in a warmer world