The role of temperature in the start of seasonal infectious disease epidemics

Many infectious diseases display strong seasonal dynamics. When both hosts and parasites are influenced by seasonal variables, it is unclear if the start of an epidemic is limited by host or parasite factors or both. The Daphnia-Pasteuria host-parasite system exhibits seasonal epidemics. We aimed to ascertain how temperature contributes to the timing of P. ramosa epidemics in early spring. To this aim, we experimentally disentangled this effect from the effects of temperature on host development and phenology and from that of host traits on parasite time to visible infection. We hypothesized that the parasite is additionally directly limited by low temperatures beyond its need for available hosts. We found that parasite time to visible infection decreased with increasing temperature at a faster rate than host time to hatching and maturity did, consistent with this hypothesis. We also found that hosts hatched from sexual resting stages are less likely to become infected than those produced clonally, and that hosts resistant to many known parasite strains are slower to show signs of visible infection compared to those susceptible to many. Together, these results imply that climate change could lead to earlier seasonal epidemics for this host-parasite system, which may also impact longer-term population dynamics.