Can Eucalyptus plantations influence the distribution range of mesocarnivores?

Context The expansion of exotic plantations can impose conservation challenges on wildlife, and the Iberian Peninsula has one of the widest planted areas of exotic Eucalyptus sp. in Europe. Since mesocarnivores are pivotal elements of ecosystems’ functioning and Eucalyptus have been modifying the Portuguese landscape context in the last half century, it is crucial to understand how these systems may affect carnivores’ range. Objectives We aim to identify the drivers of five mesocarnivores’ distribution in Portugal (e.g., land-cover, ecogeographic predictors, mammal prey availability) and understand the influence of Eucalyptus plantations in their distribution range. Methods Using generalized linear models, we modelled the distribution range of mesocarnivores. The initial dataset was randomly split for model training and validation, and the multicollinearity between the predictors was tested. Then, we examined the potential relationship between the Eucalyptus plantations area and the predicted probability presence of each species. Results We detected species-specific patterns explained by different drivers, including climatic, land cover and mammal prey related ones. Furthermore, in areas of Eucalyptus plantations, the probability of occurrence of most Portuguese mesocarnivores is lower: red fox,stone marten,European badger, and Egyptian mongoose. Conclusions Managers must take action to adapt their management to promote native forest patches within plantation, and allow the development of some understory within stands, to improve this plantation’s permeability to mesocarnivores. This will increase the spatial heterogeneity and enhance resource availability, reducing the constraints that plantations might have on the range of mesocarnivores in Portugal.