No decline in drug overdose deaths in Norway: An ecological approach to understanding at-risk groups and the impact of interventions

Aim: This Norwegian case study examines groups at risk of drug overdose deaths, evidence-based harm reduction interventions, low-threshold services and treatment implemented, as well as trends in drug overdose deaths between 2010 and 2021. We aimed to explore the relevance of interventions for at-risk groups and discuss their potential impact on drug overdose trends. Method/data: Using an ecological approach, we analysed the following: (1) groups identified through latent profile analysis (LPA) among a sample of 413 high-risk drug users collected in 2010-2012, supplemented with other relevant studies up to 2021; (2) published information on harm-reduction interventions, low-threshold services and treatment in Norway; and (3) nationwide drug overdose mortality figures supplemented with published articles on the topic. Results: High-risk drug users in 2010-2012 commonly engaged in frequent illegal drug use, injecting and poly-drug use (including pharmaceutical opioids), which continued into following decade. The interventions implemented between 2010 and 2021 were relevant for at-risk groups identified in the surveys. However, there was no decrease in the trend of drug overdose deaths up to 2021. While relevant interventions may have mitigated a theoretical increase in mortality, new at-risk groups may have contributed to fatal outcomes associated with pharmaceutical opioids. Conclusion: The interventions were relevant to the risk groups identified among high-risk drug users and potentially effective in preventing an increase in drug overdose trends. However, tailored interventions are needed for individuals at risk of death from prescribed opioids. Comprehensive studies encompassing all at-risk populations, including both legal and non-medical users of prescription opioids, are needed.