Relationships between juvenile tree survival and tree density, shrub cover and temperature vary by size class based on ratios of abundance

Global change drivers are altering forest dynamics, yet how these factors influence tree survival across early developmental stages (i.e., seedling to recruited sapling) over large geographies is not well understood. We developed a novel approach to evaluate controls on seedling and sapling survival. This approach was demonstrated on a set of systematic forest inventory plots across the northeastern USA in which seedlings were tallied within six height classes, allowing for a detailed assessment of the stages at which demographic bottlenecks in juvenile tree development are often observed. Forest inventory subplots containing a study species were divided into overlapping bins along an environmental or ecological gradient, and ratios of abundance between successive size classes were used to infer relative survival rates. Relationships between 10 common tree species and tree density, shrub cover, and mean annual temperature were assessed. As seedling height class increased, we observed shifts from positive to negative associations with shrub cover and large tree density. Our results suggest that observed patterns of sapling and tree abundance may belie complex and sometimes opposing influences on seedling survival that are important to quantify when predicting and managing for successful tree recruitment and future canopy tree composition.