Controls of Variability in the Laurentian Great Lakes Terrestrial Water Budget

The land surface hydrology of the North American Great Lakes region regulates ecosystem water availability, lake levels, vegetation dynamics, and agricultural practices. In this study, we analyze the Great Lakes terrestrial water budget using the Noah-MP land surface model to characterize the catchment hydrological regimes and identify the dominant quantities contributing to the variability in the land surface hydrology. We show that the Great Lakes domain is not hydrologically uniform and strong spatiotemporal differences exist in the regulators of the hydrological budget at daily, monthly, and annual timescales. Subseasonally, precipitation and soil moisture explain nearly all the terrestrial water budget variability in the southern basins, while the northern latitudes are snow-dominated regimes. Seasonal assessments reveal greater differences among the basins. Precipitation, evaporation, and runoff are the dominant sources of variability at lower latitudes, while at higher latitudes, terrestrial water storage in the form of ground snowpack and soil moisture has the leading role. Differences in land cover categorizations, for example, croplands, forests, or urban zones, further induce spatial differences in the hydrological characteristics. This quantification of variability in the terrestrial water cycle embedded at different temporal scales is important to assess the impacts of changes in climate and land cover on catchment sensitivities across the diverse hydroclimate of the Great Lakes region. The Laurentian Great Lakes domain is not hydrologically uniform, with different regulators of the water budget in the five subbasinsDominant quantities characterizing the subregional terrestrial hydrology vary for daily, monthly, and annual timescalesClimate change impact studies on regional hydrology need to account for basin-scale differences in the terrestrial hydroclimatic dynamics