Insights into Circular Economy Potential of Lithium by System Dynamic Modelling of Material Streams

Lithium is a key raw material for producing lithium-ion batteries. This study applies system dynamics modelling to demonstrate the (1) global lithium demand in specific lithium applications from 2005 to 2050, (2) the adequacy of lithium reserves for future lithium demand, (3) lithium content of waste streams throughout lithium value chain and (4) potential of various circular strategies for answering to the rising lithium demand. According to the modelling results, the main lithium application is battery electric vehicle batteries (almost 60 % in 2023 to 80-90 % by 2050) with current battery chemistries. Without circular strategies, 75-85 % of lithium is wasted throughout the value chain. Circular strategies may reduce the waste considerably (7-47 %), but to maintain sustainable supply of lithium a stacking of multiple complementary circular strategies over the lithium value chain is required. Lithium: This paper analyses the global lithium flows and its potential for circular strategies using system dynamics. Based on the modelling results, the availability of lithium reserves is in risk of depletion by 2050. Circular strategies are crucial to ensure sustainable supply of lithium for major applications such as lithium-ion batteries in battery electric vehicles, grid energy storage and consumer electronics.image