Future Implications of Climate Change on Arum palaestinum Boiss: Drought Tolerance, Growth and Production

The objectives of the work were to understand the potential future climate changes in the Mediterranean region, assess the drought tolerance of the black calla lily (Arum palaestinum Boiss.), and investigate the mechanisms associated with its ability to withstand drought conditions. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to predict future temperature and precipitation changes. Both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios predicted a general increase in minimum and maximum temperatures and a decrease in precipitation. The projected increase in minimum temperature ranged from 2.95 degrees C under SSP2-4.5 to 5.67 degrees C under SSP5-8.5. The projected increase in maximum temperature ranged from 0.69 degrees C under SSP2-4.5 to 3.34 degrees C under SSP5-8.5. The projected decrease in precipitation ranged from -1.04 mm/day under SSP2-4.5 to -1.11 mm/day under SSP5-8.5. Results indicated that drought significantly impacted the physiological responses of the black calla lily. As drought increased, the black calla lily showed a reduction in leaf characteristics and non-structural carbohydrates, while proline content and reducing sugar content were increased, enhancing drought tolerance through osmoregulation. The black calla lily tolerates drought at a total ET of up to 50%. It has the potential to adapt to expected climate change through osmoregulation or by building a carbon and nitrogen sink for stress recovery.